• Combined new contract activity declined from 164 contracts last year to 140 this year, a decrease of 24 contracts, or 14.6%.
• The Virginia Countryside was essentially unchanged, with 80 contracts compared with 81 last year, a decline of just 1.2%. The West Virginia Panhandle had a much tougher week, falling from 83 contracts to 60, a decline of 27.7%.
• The combined weighted average days on market increased from 43.9 days to 55.6 days, an increase of 11.7 days, or 26.7%.
• Year-to-date, the two markets have recorded 6,751 contracts compared with 6,708 last year, an increase of 43 contracts, or 0.6%.That's a considerably smaller advantage than we enjoyed earlier in the year, but it remains positive.

• Last week, we suggested that the Labor Day calendar had made an already difficult market look worse. This week's report removes that explanation, and the results confirm that buyer activity remains subdued.
• But unlike the Metro DC market, where all six jurisdictions declined, our two rural markets tell very different stories.
• The Virginia Countryside deserves some credit for holding its ground. Contract activity declined by exactly one transaction, from 81 to 80. In the context of the double-digit declines we've been seeing throughout the region, that's a relatively encouraging result.
• There were also meaningful differences across price points. Contracts below $750,000 actually increased from 70 to 72, a gain of 2.9%. The $500,000–$749,999 category rose 15.8%, and the $750,000–$999,999 category increased from three contracts to five.
• The weakness was concentrated above $1 million, where activity fell from eight contracts to three. In a market this size, a handful of transactions can make a considerable difference to the weekly totals.
• The West Virginia Panhandle had a more difficult week. Contract activity declined 27.7%, from 83 to 60, with most of the weakness concentrated below $500,000. Contracts in that price range fell from 74 to 50.
• Interestingly, the Panhandle recorded two contracts above $750,000 compared with none last year. Those numbers are too small to draw broad conclusions, but they reinforce that the slowdown isn't affecting every price category equally.
• Our familiar heartbeat analogy is still appropriate. The Countryside is maintaining a relatively steady rhythm, while the Panhandle is having trouble finding its footing.
• Days on market deserve attention. Unlike some recent weeks when lower contract activity was accompanied by faster sales, both markets experienced longer marketing times. The Virginia Countryside's average days on market increased from 45.3 to 62.0 days, a substantial 36.9% increase. The Panhandle rose from 42.5 to 47.1 days, an increase of 10.8%.
• Weighted by the number of contracts in each market, the combined average increased from 43.9 to 55.6 days, or 26.7%. That's not a number we should dismiss. It suggests that the slowdown is beginning to affect not only the number of homes going under contract, but also how long some homes are taking to find buyers.
• At the same time, days on market measures the homes that actually went under contract, not every home currently available. In relatively small markets, a few older listings finding buyers can move the weekly average substantially. We'll want to see whether these longer marketing times persist before treating them as a lasting change.

• The longer-term numbers remain more encouraging than the weekly report.
• The Virginia Countryside has recorded 3,404 contracts compared with 3,332 last year, an increase of 72 contracts, or 2.2%.
• The West Virginia Panhandle has recorded 3,347 contracts compared with 3,376, a decline of 29 contracts, or 0.9%.
• Combined, the markets remain ahead by 43 contracts, or 0.6%.
• That represents a significant narrowing of the cushion built earlier in the year, but it also means the Countryside's continued strength has been sufficient to offset the Panhandle's modest year-to-date decline.
• The longer-term price-point trends offer another encouraging detail. In the Virginia Countryside, contracts above $750,000 are up 11.4% year-to-date. In the Panhandle, that segment is up 75%, albeit from a much smaller base of transactions.
• So while the overall market has become more challenging, buyers haven't abandoned the upper end.
• And compared with the closer-in Metro DC market, which is now running approximately 1% behind last year, these rural markets continue to hold up a little better on a combined year-to-date basis.

• Virginia Countryside: -1.2%
• West Virginia Panhandle: -27.7%
• Combined: -14.6%
• Combined weighted average days on market: 43.9 to 55.6 days, up 26.7%

The heartbeat hasn't stopped, but it's certainly become less predictable.

The Virginia Countryside continues to hold its own, the Panhandle is experiencing a more pronounced slowdown, and longer marketing times suggest buyers are becoming increasingly deliberate.

With mortgage rates above 7%, that's not particularly surprising.

The encouraging part is that, after more than 6,700 contracts, these markets are still running slightly ahead of last year. The market is adjusting to a more challenging environment, but there are still buyers, still transactions, and still pockets of strength.

We'd certainly prefer a stronger heartbeat. For now, though, a little resilience goes a long way.